Climate vulnerability of coffee-cocoa agrosystems in the sub-humid mountain ecosystems in south-west Togo (West Africa)

Abstract Changes in climate patterns are the main challenges being faced by coffee and cocoa production systems, one of key sources livelihood for farmers Togo’s humid dense forests zone, also known as “Togo ecological zone IV”. The objective this study was to analyze climatic vulnerability coffee-cocoa agroforestry systems (CCAFS) Togo IV both ongoing (last 40 years 1980–2019) incoming decades (by 2050) considering forecast under AR6 socioeconomic pathways. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) approach with Mann–Kendall & Sen’s tests MaxEnt tool were used assess drought condition potential impacts on CCAFS suitability area. results show instability rainfall series a non-significant progressive trend area during past four decades, while significant increase temperature observed. Beyond 2050, suitable areas species will drift pic mountainous part. Thus, respectively 51.91 54.50% currently two species, be lost future scenario SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5. These losses mainly due reduction precipitation driest month (Bio14), quarter (Bio17), coldest (Bio19) year. Drought is therefore revealed limiting factor Togo. increasing intensity source high well local farmers’ livelihoods.